‘Revolution’ one of the R’s taught in Tucson

Arizona Republic Column

Doug Maceachern

Feb. 16, 2008 04:49 PM

Last in a three-part series.

Augustine Romero, director of Tucson Unified School District’s ethnic-studies department, is nothing if not candid about his program.

Traditional history and civics courses, Romero argues, have “been highly ineffective to children of color.” He has a better way.That better way, as presented to students in Romero’s increasingly influential program, is, effectively, revolution. Or, if that “R-word” strikes you as too edgy, resistance - a resistance against history and civics as traditionally taught, which Romero considers the product of “ultraconservatives.”

“With the ultraconservative orientation, people want to believe that if you offer a naive, simplistic, color-blind orientation, that’s the only truth.

“We transcend indoctrination because we offer multiple perspectives. It’s a higher level of thinking.”

If Romero’s words sound politically anchored, they should. Romero happily acknowledges that he and all his instructors are “progressives,” and he is contemptuous of teachers who resist admitting that all history instruction is political.

“Our teachers are left-leaning. They are progressives. They’re going to have things (in their courses) that conservatives are not going to like,” he told me.

“Their concern is that it’s not their political orientation. To sit here and say teachers don’t walk into the classroom with a political orientation, that’s the furthest (thing) from the truth.”

Romero is a confident man. Not unlike that self-assured aide-de-camp of Fidel Castro, Ché Guevara, whose romantic portrait has been hung in Romero’s ethnic-studies classrooms.

Ché, too, believed the world was divided between progressives and ultraconservative reactionaries, many of whom he imprisoned and shot.

In one of Romero’s TUSD classrooms, in fact, a video posted for a time on the Internet Web site YouTube showed at least four separate posters of the beret-capped Ché decorating the classroom walls. And a poster of Pancho Villa. And, yes, one poster of the godfather of the revolution himself, Fidel.

Romero’s confidence about his program and its future at TUSD is justified. It is growing rapidly.

The $2.6 million “ethnic studies” program in the Tucson school district is an umbrella program for four separate departments: “raza” (Hispanic) studies, African-American studies, Pan-Asian studies and Native American studies. Raza studies are by far the largest.

At Tucson High School, the department offers 12 separate literature and history courses. Districtwide, it offers 25 course sections in four high schools, all at junior and senior levels. According to Romero, TUSD may offer an “intercultural proficiencies” course next fall to freshmen. And, he adds, it may be a required course.

Romero’s program has raised some eyebrows. State Superintendent of Public Instruction Tom Horne, who had a devil of a time even learning about the program’s curriculum, has seen the program’s texts (at last). He concludes they are steeped in leftist ideology and race-based resentment.

But the real horrors of Romero’s program are closer to home.

In the past several weeks, messages have filtered out from teachers and other TUSD employees (some directed to Horne; others who have contacted me, following two previous columns on this subject) about what an officially recognized resentment-based program does to a high school.

In a word, it creates fear.

Teachers and counselors are being called before their school principals and even the district school board and accused of being racists. And with a cadre of self-acknowledged “progressive” political activists in the ethnic-studies department on the hunt, the race transgressors are multiplying.

One school counselor, who wrote to Horne, described an entire counseling department being decried as a racist after one of Romero’s activists saw an “innocuous notation” on a draft paper drawn up from a department brain-storming session.

The ethnic-studies teacher “grossly misinterpreted” the notation to have racist meaning, the counselor said. The teacher wrote a letter to the parents of his students “telling them the school’s counselors are racist” and encouraged his students to sign the letter.

“I can tell you that the weeks that followed were difficult ones for the counselors,” the TUSD school counselor wrote.

“There were many tears. Most of us lost sleep. All of us experienced heightened levels of anxiety. Through no fault of our own, we were being perceived differently by our students and their parents.”

Ethnic-studies director Romero points to the confidence his program instills in its students. And, allegedly, the better grades they get, once imbued with his program’s “multiple perspectives.”

But to every revolution - or, if you must, every resistance to oppressors - there is a dark side. There are victims.

Ché would understand.

Now, courts are swamped because of illegal immigration

Courtesy of AZCentral.com

Courts unable to keep up with border arrests

Sean Holstege
The Arizona Republic
Feb. 20, 2008 12:00 AM

The government has started cracking down on illegal border crossers in the Tucson Sector. But limited resources in Arizona’s federal-court system are blocking the goal of prosecuting everyone who enters the country illegally.

The Border Patrol has referred 757 cases to authorities since the government began prosecuting illegal crossers in the Tucson area on Jan. 14. Up to 42 are prosecuted daily, and there are plans to prosecute up to 100 cases a day in the busiest human-smuggling area on the border.

But federal courts in Tucson can hold only 60 immigration defendants a day, and even if they could handle the 100-a-day workload, that amounts to prosecuting only 10 percent of those arrested by the Border Patrol.

Still, officials expect the threat of prosecution and prison time to deter illegal crossers.

The Operation Streamline policy, which has proved effective in the Yuma Sector and two parts of Texas, involves filing charges against nearly everyone caught crossing the border illegally.

Mexican authorities confirm that illegal immigrants have been deterred from crossing into the Yuma Sector by the prospect of spending two weeks to six months in prison for the misdemeanor crime.

Historically, illegal immigrants have immediately been shipped back to Mexico if they did not have criminal records. Foreign criminals are deported after serving their prison sentences. And if they are caught re-entering illegally again, they are charged with felonies, which can carry sentences up to five years.

Demand on courts

The U.S. District Court of Arizona is the nation’s busiest, presiding Chief Judge John M. Roll said. He said judges in his district sentence 500 felons a year, compared with a national average of 90. His office has asked the 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals to lend magistrates.

U.S. Magistrate Glenda Edmonds said she and her colleagues in Tucson typically handle half a dozen pretrial hearings a day.

To meet the demand of the new flux of immigration cases, one magistrate takes them all for a week in a rotation system.

“If we get to the point where we get to 100 cases a day in this building, we will need at least one more magistrate,” Edmonds said.

Lawyers are also in short supply. The Department of Homeland Security has lent the U.S. Attorney’s Office four lawyers to help prosecute the new immigration cases.

First Assistant Federal Public Defender Heather Williams said there are only 32 panel lawyers who are willing to handle Streamline cases on a contract fee from the government.

The court may increase the maximum caseload per lawyer or assign a public defender exclusively to immigration cases, Williams said, concluding that her office “will be able to handle fewer criminal cases.”

Operation Streamline was created to deter illegal immigration. The Yuma Sector saw a 70 percent drop in arrests last year at a time arrests borderwide fell 20 percent.

The policy was credited, along with extra border agents and improved fencing. Yet even in the Yuma Sector, where the Border Patrol arrests one-tenth of those arrested in the Tucson Sector, authorities have been unable to prosecute everyone.

The Border Patrol has referred 1,511 immigrants for prosecution since the program was extended to the entire sector in the fall. It made 4,066 arrests.

Courtroom holding space is a limiting factor in Yuma, too. Judges say they can handle up to 75 prosecutions a day, but because of space constraints, only 30 cases can be sent.

In the Tucson Sector, the Border Patrol has no immediate plans to phase in more than 100 prosecutions daily. That means at its peak, only one in 10 of those arrested can be prosecuted.

Still, Deputy Chief Robert Boatright said the clampdown is having results. He said that, in the 15-mile target area where the program was launched, a 79 percent recidivism rate has plummeted to 46 percent. Elsewhere in the Tucson Sector, immigrants re-enter 80 to 92 percent of the time.

“We’ve been able to gain control of that area, maintain control of that area and widen out that area,” Boatright said.

Tucson Sector agents arrested 11 percent fewer border crossers in January than they did a year earlier, although many believe this has as much to do with a slowing U.S. economy and Arizona’s strict employer-sanctions law.

Boatright said even a 10 percent risk of being imprisoned appears too great for many immigrants.

“I’ve talked to detainees, and they say it’s just not worth it to them,” said Ray Kondo, assistant chief in Arizona for the U.S. Marshal Service, which transports and houses the prisoners.

Effect on prisons

With federal detentions taking in the extra misdemeanor-immigration convicts, some prison-reform watchdogs worry that the prisons will run out of bed space and create a demand for more prisons or a crunch to release other criminals early.

Kondo said that won’t happen because once prosecutions reach their quota, people will be deported as fast as they are convicted.

Even if Arizona’s prisons get overloaded, federal prisoners can, and routinely do, get transferred to facilities throughout the country.

Reformists such as Judy Greene of Justice Strategies are unconvinced, knowing the government faces a million border crossers a year.

“This looks tough but accomplishes very little. It will increase pressure for expanding the detention systems,” she said. “It’s going to cost a lot of money and drain resources from more important cases.”

Two weeks ago, U.S. Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, a Tucson Democrat, met for the fourth time with judges and federal agents about Streamline.

Her spokesman, C.J. Karamargin, said Giffords supports the stronger enforcement and has been advised that it has worked elsewhere, but Giffords shares concerns about the drain on resources for the criminal-justice system.

“Those concerns are valid,” Karamargin said, “She wants these federal agencies to have the resources but doesn’t want them wasted on something ineffective.”

Obama is on a roll

Obama Scores 10th Straight Victory

Feb 20 08:26 AM US/Eastern By DAVID ESPO AP Special Correspondent

WASHINGTON (AP) - Barack Obama added Wisconsin and Hawaii to a primary season winning streak that now totals 10 and has put Hillary Rodham Clinton into a virtual must-win scenario in Democratic contests coming early next month in Texas and Ohio.

The former first lady now looks to a debate Thursday in Austin, Texas, to stall Obama’s momentum and reinvigorate her campaign.

“The change we seek is still months and miles away,” Obama told a boisterous crowd in Houston in a speech Tuesday night in which he also pledged to end the war in Iraq in his first year in office.

“I opposed this war in 2002. I will bring this war to an end in 2009. It is time to bring our troops home,” he declared.

Sen. John McCain, the Republican front-runner, won a pair of primaries, in Wisconsin and Washington, to continue his march toward certain nomination.

In a race growing increasingly negative, Obama cut deeply into Clinton’s political bedrock in Wisconsin, splitting the support of white women almost evenly with her. According to polling place interviews, he also ran well among working class voters in the blue collar battleground that was prelude to primaries in the larger industrial states of Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Clinton made no mention of her defeat, and showed no sign of surrender in an appearance in Youngstown, Ohio.

“Both Senator Obama and I would make history,” the New York senator said. “But only one of us is ready on day one to be commander in chief, ready to manage our economy, and ready to defeat the Republicans. Only one of us has spent 35 years being a doer, a fighter and a champion for those who need a voice.”

In a clear sign of their relative standing in the race, most cable television networks abruptly cut away from coverage of Clinton’s rally when Obama began to speak in Texas.

McCain easily won the Republican primary in Wisconsin with 55 percent of the vote, dispatching former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and edging closer to the 1,191 delegates he needs to clinch the GOP nomination at the party convention in St. Paul, Minn. next summer. The Arizona senator also won the primary in Washington, where 19 delegates were at stake, with 49 percent of the vote in incomplete results.

In scarcely veiled criticism of Obama, the Republican nominee-in- waiting said, “I will fight every moment of every day in this campaign to make sure that Americans are not deceived by an eloquent but empty call for change.”

McCain stepped up his criticism of Obama on Wednesday, suggesting the Democrat doesn’t have the experience or judgment on foreign policy and defense matters needed in a president.

“There are a lot of national security challenges and I know how to handle them. Senator Obama wants to bomb Pakistan without talking to the Pakistanis. I think that’s dangerous,” McCain said in an interview on ABC’s “Good Morning America.” “I think that’s an important factor—experience and judgment. Ready to serve and no on the job training.”

McCain’s nomination has been assured since Super Tuesday three weeks ago, as first one, then another of his former rivals has dropped out and the party establishment has closed ranks behind him.

Not so in the Democratic race, where Obama and Clinton campaign seven days a week, he the strongest black presidential candidate in history, she bidding to become the first woman to sit in the White House.

Ohio and Texas vote next on March 4—370 convention delegates in all—and even some of Clinton’s supporters concede she must win one, and possibly both, to remain competitive. Two smaller states, Vermont and Rhode Island, also have primaries that day.

With the votes counted in all but one of Wisconsin’s 3,570 precincts, Obama won 58 percent of the vote to 41 percent for Clinton.

With 100 percent of the vote counted in Hawaii, Obama had 76 percent to Clinton’s 24 percent.

Wisconsin offered 74 national convention delegates. There were 20 delegates at stake in Hawaii, where Obama spent much of his youth.

Washington Democrats voted in a primary, too, but their delegates were picked earlier in the month in caucuses won by Obama.

The Illinois senator’s Wisconsin victory left him with 1,303 delegates in The Associated Press’ count, compared with 1,233 for Clinton, a margin that masks his 145-delegate lead among those picked in primaries or caucuses. It takes 2,025 to win the nomination at the party’s national convention in Denver. Allocation of the 20 Hawaii delegates was not being calculated until later Wednesday.

Obama’s victory came after a week in which Clinton and her aides tried to knock him off stride. They criticized him in television commercials and accused him of plagiarism for using words first uttered by Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick, a friend. He shrugged off the advertising volley, and said that while he should have given Patrick credit, the controversy didn’t amount to much.

The voters seemed not to care.

Wisconsin independents cast about one-quarter of the ballots in the race between Obama and Clinton, and roughly 15 percent of the electorate were first-time voters, the survey at polling places said. Obama has run strongly among independents in earlier primaries, and among younger voters, and cited their support as evidence that he would make a stronger general election candidate in the fall.

Obama began the evening with eight straight primary and caucus victories, a remarkable run that has propelled him past Clinton in the overall delegate race and enabled him to chip away at her advantage among elected officials within the party who will have convention votes as superdelegates.

The economy and trade were key issues in the race, and seven in 10 voters said international trade has resulted in lost jobs in Wisconsin. Fewer than one in five said trade has created more jobs than it has lost.

The Democrats’ focus on trade was certain to intensify, with primaries in Ohio in two weeks and in Pennsylvania on April 22.

Obama’s campaign has already distributed mass mailings critical of Clinton on the issue in Ohio. “Bad trade deals like NAFTA hit Ohio harder than most states. Only Barack Obama consistently opposed NAFTA,” it said.

Clinton’s aides initially signaled she would virtually concede Wisconsin, and the former first lady spent less time in the state than Obama.

Even so, she ran a television ad that accused her rival of ducking a debate in the state and added that she had the only health care plan that would cover all Americans and the only economic plan to stop home foreclosures. “Maybe he’d prefer to give speeches than have to answer questions” the commercial said.

Obama countered with an ad of his own, saying his health care plan would cover more people.

Unlike the Democratic race, McCain was assured of the Republican nomination and concentrated on turning his primary campaign into a general election candidacy.

In one sign of progress in unifying the party, he split the conservative vote with Huckabee in Wisconsin.

Huckabee parried occasional suggestions—none of them by McCain—that he quit the race. In a move that was unorthodox if not unprecedented for a presidential contender, he left the country in recent days to make a paid speech in the Grand Cayman Islands.

McCain picked up endorsements in the days before the primary from former President George H.W. Bush and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, a campaign dropout who urged his 280 delegates to swing behind the party’s nominee-to-be.

Oil closes at $100 per barrell

AP
Oil Jumps Above $100 on Refinery Outage
Tuesday February 19, 4:29 pm ET
By John Wilen, AP Business Writer

Oil Jumps Back Above $100 on a Texas Refinery Outage and Possible OPEC Production Cut NEW YORK (AP) — Oil futures shot higher Tuesday, closing above $100 for the first time as investors bet that crude prices will keep climbing despite evidence of plentiful supplies and falling demand. At the pump, gas prices rose further above $3 a gallon.There was no single driver behind oil’s sharp price jump; investors seized on an explosion at a 67,000 barrel per day refinery in Texas, the falling dollar, the possibility that OPEC may cut production next month, the threat of new violence in Nigeria and continuing tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela.

The fact that there was no overriding reason for such a price spike could be a bad omen for consumers already bearing the burdens of high heating costs and falling real estate values. Many recent forecasts have said oil demand growth this year will be less than initially expected, yet prices continue to rise. That suggests they may continue rising as the weakening dollar attracts new investors to the futures market.

And rising oil prices mean higher gas prices.

“As the economy weakens, it’s going to be met with $3.50 and $3.60 gasoline,” said James Cordier, founder of OptionSellers.com, a Tampa, Fla., trading firm. “And that really spells trouble for the consumer.”

Light, sweet crude for March delivery rose $4.51 to settle at a record $100.01 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after earlier rising to $100.10, a new trading record. It was the first time since Jan. 3 that oil had been above $100.

Oil prices are still within the range of inflation-adjusted highs set in early 1980. Depending on how the adjustment is calculated, $38 a barrel then would be worth $96 to $103 or more today.

Crude futures offer a hedge against a falling dollar, and oil futures bought and sold in dollars are more attractive to foreign investors when the greenback is falling.

“I really think … crude oil’s going to soar through $100,” Cordier said.

At the pump, meanwhile, gas prices jumped 1.8 cents to a national average price of $3.032 a gallon Tuesday, according to AAA and the Oil Price Information Service. Retail prices, which typically lag the futures market, are following oil prices higher. The Energy Department and many analysts expect gas prices to peak this spring well above last May’s record of $3.227 a gallon.

Gasoline and heating oil prices appeared to lead Tuesday’s wide advance in energy prices due to the explosion Monday at Alon USA’s Big Spring, Texas, refinery, which could be shuttered for two months.

“The refinery fire in Texas is making people a little concerned,” said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research Inc. in Amherst, Mass.

March gasoline jumped 10.93 cents to settle at a record $2.6031 a gallon, and March heating oil rose 11.45 cents to settle at $2.7614 a gallon, also a record.

A threat by a rebel group in Nigeria to escalate attacks on the nation’s crude oil infrastructure helped boost oil prices. The rebels were acting in response to rumors that the government had killed a captured leader, whom authorities later said was safe and well. Militant attacks have cut about 20 percent of Nigeria’s crude output in recent years.

For the moment, investors appear to have put aside concerns about the economy that have sent oil prices down into the mid-$80 range twice in the last month. Traders are instead focused on the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which will meet early next month to map out production plans, and Venezuela, where President Hugo Chavez made conflicting statements this weekend about the country’s legal dispute with Exxon Mobil Corp.

OPEC could move to cut production in the second quarter, typically a period of low demand, though many analysts feel that’s unlikely. In Venezuela, Chavez said he was not serious about an earlier threat to cut oil sales to the U.S., but also threatened to sue Exxon Mobil. The world’s largest oil company is fighting Venezuela’s nationalization of an oil project, and recently convinced several courts to freeze $12 billion in Venezuelan oil assets.

Other energy futures also rose Tuesday. March natural gas jumped 31.7 cents to settle at $8.977 per 1,000 cubic feet. Analysts said prices were supported by forecasts for cooler weather, but that futures were also following oil prices higher.

In London, Brent crude for April delivery rose $3.65 to settle at $98.56 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange.

AP Business Writers George Jahn in Vienna and Thomas Hogue in Bangkok contributed to this report.

Financial Times: America’s Economy in Trouble

America’s economy risks the mother of all meltdowns

 

By Martin WolfTue Feb 19, 1:25 PM ET

“I would tell audiences that we were facing not a bubble but a froth - lots of small, local bubbles that never grew to a scale that could threaten the health of the overall economy.” Alan Greenspan, The Age of Turbulence.

That used to be Mr Greenspan’s view of the US housing bubble. He was wrong, alas. So how bad might this downturn get? To answer this question we should ask a true bear. My favourite one is Nouriel Roubini of New York University’s Stern School of Business, founder of RGE monitor.

Recently, Professor Roubini’s scenarios have been dire enough to make the flesh creep. But his thinking deserves to be taken seriously. He first predicted a US recession in July 2006*. At that time, his view was extremely controversial. It is so no longer. Now he states that there is “a rising probability of a ‘catastrophic’ financial and economic outcome”**. The characteristics of this scenario are, he argues: “A vicious circle where a deep recession makes the financial losses more severe and where, in turn, large and growing financial losses and a financial meltdown make the recession even more severe.”

Prof Roubini is even fonder of lists than I am. Here are his 12 - yes, 12 - steps to financial disaster.

Step one is the worst housing recession in US history. House prices will, he says, fall by 20 to 30 per cent from their peak, which would wipe out between $4,000bn and $6,000bn in household wealth. Ten million households will end up with negative equity and so with a huge incentive to put the house keys in the post and depart for greener fields. Many more home-builders will be bankrupted.

Step two would be further losses, beyond the $250bn-$300bn now estimated, for subprime mortgages. About 60 per cent of all mortgage origination between 2005 and 2007 had “reckless or toxic features”, argues Prof Roubini. Goldman Sachs estimates mortgage losses at $400bn. But if home prices fell by more than 20 per cent, losses would be bigger. That would further impair the banks’ ability to offer credit.

Step three would be big losses on unsecured consumer debt: credit cards, auto loans, student loans and so forth. The “credit crunch” would then spread from mortgages to a wide range of consumer credit.

Step four would be the downgrading of the monoline insurers, which do not deserve the AAA rating on which their business depends. A further $150bn writedown of asset-backed securities would then ensue.

Step five would be the meltdown of the commercial property market, while step six would be bankruptcy of a large regional or national bank.

Step seven would be big losses on reckless leveraged buy-outs. Hundreds of billions of dollars of such loans are now stuck on the balance sheets of financial institutions.

Step eight would be a wave of corporate defaults. On average, US companies are in decent shape, but a “fat tail” of companies has low profitability and heavy debt. Such defaults would spread losses in “credit default swaps”, which insure such debt. The losses could be $250bn. Some insurers might go bankrupt.

Step nine would be a meltdown in the “shadow financial system”. Dealing with the distress of hedge funds, special investment vehicles and so forth will be made more difficult by the fact that they have no direct access to lending from central banks.

Step 10 would be a further collapse in stock prices. Failures of hedge funds, margin calls and shorting could lead to cascading falls in prices.

Step 11 would be a drying-up of liquidity in a range of financial markets, including interbank and money markets. Behind this would be a jump in concerns about solvency.

Step 12 would be “a vicious circle of losses, capital reduction, credit contraction, forced liquidation and fire sales of assets at below fundamental prices”.

These, then, are 12 steps to meltdown. In all, argues Prof Roubini: “Total losses in the financial system will add up to more than $1,000bn and the economic recession will become deeper more protracted and severe.” This, he suggests, is the “nightmare scenario” keeping Ben Bernanke and colleagues at the US Federal Reserve awake. It explains why, having failed to appreciate the dangers for so long, the Fed has lowered rates by 200 basis points this year. This is insurance against a financial meltdown.

Is this kind of scenario at least plausible? It is. Furthermore, we can be confident that it would, if it came to pass, end all stories about “decoupling”. If it lasts six quarters, as Prof Roubini warns, offsetting policy action in the rest of the world would be too little, too late.

Can the Fed head this danger off? In a subsequent piece, Prof Roubini gives eight reasons why it cannot***. (He really loves lists!) These are, in brief: US monetary easing is constrained by risks to the dollar and inflation; aggressive easing deals only with illiquidity, not insolvency; the monoline insurers will lose their credit ratings, with dire consequences; overall losses will be too large for sovereign wealth funds to deal with; public intervention is too small to stabilise housing losses; the Fed cannot address the problems of the shadow financial system; regulators cannot find a good middle way between transparency over losses and regulatory forbearance, both of which are needed; and, finally, the transactions-oriented financial system is itself in deep crisis.

The risks are indeed high and the ability of the authorities to deal with them more limited than most people hope. This is not to suggest that there are no ways out. Unfortunately, they are poisonous ones. In the last resort, governments resolve financial crises. This is an iron law. Rescues can occur via overt government assumption of bad debt, inflation, or both. Japan chose the first, much to the distaste of its ministry of finance. But Japan is a creditor country whose savers have complete confidence in the solvency of their government. The US, however, is a debtor. It must keep the trust of foreigners. Should it fail to do so, the inflationary solution becomes probable. This is quite enough to explain why gold costs $920 an ounce.

The connection between the bursting of the housing bubble and the fragility of the financial system has created huge dangers, for the US and the rest of the world. The US public sector is now coming to the rescue, led by the Fed. In the end, they will succeed. But the journey is likely to be wretchedly uncomfortable.

*A Coming Recession in the US Economy? July 17 2006, www.rgemonitor.com; **The Rising Risk of a Systemic Financial Meltdown, February 5 2008; ***Can the Fed and Policy Makers Avoid a Systemic Financial Meltdown? Most Likely Not, February 8 2008

Poll: Americans Feel More Positive

Americans feel better about future: Reuters poll

Wed Feb 20, 2008 7:48am EST

By John Whitesides, Political Correspondent

MILWAUKEE (Reuters) - Growing confidence in the future and slightly warmer views of President George W. Bush and the U.S. Congress put Americans in a better mood this month, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Wednesday.

The Reuters/Zogby Index, which measures the mood of the country, rose sharply to 99.3 in February from last month’s 94.2, putting it at the highest level since August.

Approval ratings for Bush climbed to 34 percent from 31 percent last month, and positive ratings for Congress inched up from 14 percent to a still-low 17 percent.

Concerns about personal finances, job security, safety and the direction of the country all eased at least slightly in the last month, brightening the outlook for Americans who had slipped into a funk around the holidays.

There were some dark clouds. For the first time, a majority of Americans, 54 percent, expect a recession in the next year, up from last month’s 48 percent, as a housing downturn and credit crunch take their toll.

Despite worries about a recession, the number of Americans who think the country is on the wrong track shrank to a still-high 62 percent, down from 68 percent.

“People are adjusting their expectations. They see a recession coming but they still feel better about their future,” pollster John Zogby said.

The mood swing followed a month in which Bush and Congress worked together to approve a package of measures designed to give a short-term boost to the economy, while U.S. deaths from the war in Iraq continued to fade from the headlines.

The intense interest in the U.S. presidential race as voting began across the United States, with compelling races in both political parties capturing public attention, turned the debate from the present, Zogby said.

FOCUS ON FUTURE

“The focus now is on the future. There is going to be a new president and a new Congress and people feel good about that,” he said.

Eight of the 10 measures of public opinion used in the Index rose, with one dropping slightly and one staying the same.

The number of Americans who feel very secure in their jobs jumped 7 points in a month, to 50 percent from 43 percent, and the number who gave positive marks to their personal financial situations climbed to 56 percent from 52 percent.

Positive marks for the Bush administration’s foreign policy climbed 5 points to 28 percent from 23 percent, but approval ratings for economic policy stayed exactly the same at a low 22 percent.

More Americans feel very safe from foreign threats and more are fairly or very proud of the United States, but the number of Americans confident their children will have a better life fell slightly to 64 percent.

The Index combines responses to 10 questions on Americans’ views about their leaders, the direction of the country and their future. Index polling began in July, and that month’s results provide the benchmark score of 100.

A score above 100 indicates the public mood has improved since July. A score below 100, like the one this month, shows the mood has soured since July.

The RZI is released on the third Wednesday of each month.

The telephone poll of 1,105 likely voters, taken Wednesday through Saturday, had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Cindy McCain is proud of her country. Take that Michelle!

Hillary Clinton is making our dreams come true

This is just awful.  But, you have to watch it.  Are we really this nerdy?

Election year means no immigration reform

Despite the public’s cry for reforms, election-year politics will keep politicians from plain talk and solutions.

By David R. Francis | columnist Christian Scientist Monitor

In an election year, the prospects of straight talk by the presidential candidates on immigration reform are slim. The issue is too complex and highly contentious.

The public would like to see the problem of illegal immigrants tackled by Washington. But most Americans oppose shortcuts to citizenship for the 12 million or more “undocumented” immigrants. Democratic Sens. Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton are competing for the Hispanic vote. They aren’t talking tough about deporting illegal workers and their families, most of whom are Hispanic. After all, friends and family of illegal Latinos often have the vote.

On the Republican side, the candidates tend to talk sternly about repatriating illegal immigrants. Sen. John McCain (R) of Arizona has the awkward history of having cosponsored a bill with Sen. Edward Kennedy (D) of Massachusetts last year that would have given illegal aliens a route, involving penalties, fines, and fees, to legal status and citizenship.

Anyone saying that proposal is amnesty is a “liar,” Senator McCain has said. But every program in the world that has allowed illegal immigrants to stay has been called an “amnesty,” notes Mark Krikorian, executive director of the Center for Immigration Studies in Washington. He proposes shrinking the number of illegal immigrants gradually through enforcement of the laws.

“To get the nomination, McCain has thrown straight talk off the bus,” charges Mr. Krikorian.

Another immigration expert, Joseph Chamie, research director at the Center for Migration Studies in New York, argues contrariwise that legalization is the “only viable long-term option” for dealing with illegal immigrants.

Mr. Chamie longs for “an honest dialogue” by politicians with the public on immigration. That, he says, is unlikely before the election next fall.

“Yes, legalization is an amnesty, in effect,” he says. “Yes, it is a reward to those who entered the United States illegally. Yes, illegal immigration does – for some people – depress wages. Yes, it is a matter of national security.”

So far, though, “lawmakers are saying one thing and doing another,” Chamie says. “I can understand why people are frustrated, angry.”

As the presidential campaign moves on, illegal immigration will heat up. Dem­ocratic and Republican presidential candidates will use the issue to seek votes.

Chamie estimates that as many as 48 million mostly Hispanic people living in the United States, about one-fifth of the population, are not eager to see their relatives, friends, and ethnic comrades deported as the result of a crackdown on illegal aliens. Moreover, as the weather improves in the spring, Chamie expects demonstrations by immigrants and their supporters wanting legalization.

Many will push for loose immigration policies to suit their interests, Chamie says. Businesses see immigrants as cheap labor, he says. Roman Catholic bishops, he continues, will urge opening the nation’s doors to more immigrants, many of them Catholic.

In 1986, with strong support from President Reagan, the government gave nearly 3 million illegal aliens legal status or amnesty. It was to be the last such amnesty.

Since then, though, neither Repub­lican nor Democratic administrations have seriously tried to stem the growing number of illegal immigrants by penalizing their employers. Only last year did the Bush administration and some states take more serious enforcement action.

“That is starting to bear fruit,” says Krikorian. Anecdotal evidence suggests some Mexicans here illegally are going home and fewer are coming north. Illegal aliens in states cracking down, such as Oklahoma and Arizona, are shifting to Texas or other more friendly states.

Both Republicans and Democrats agree on the need to tighten US borders. Last Monday, President Bush proposed increasing spending on border security by 19 percent. He calls for nearly $500 million to hire 2,200 new border patrol agents and $2 billion over two years for more fencing and high-tech surveillance along the border with Mexico.

But even with tighter borders, the problem of 12 million illegals remains.

Krikorian says consistent, across-the-board enforcement of existing laws will prompt many illegals to give up and deport themselves. “Enforcement is what the public wants,” he says.

But Chamie doubts many illegal Hispanic immigrants will leave voluntarily, even with hard enforcement of the laws. They have become too socialized to American ways. Their children may not even speak Spanish. The women like their relative independence here, compared with life in their home countries.

If a new system of employer verification identification to catch illegal workers becomes workable, many will find work off the books, rely on extended families to survive, or even panhandle and wash cars for $5, Chamie predicts.

Washington, given the way it works, may eventually compromise on some mixture of enforcement, more secure borders, and legalization.

He’s 22 and been deported 14 times!

By MyFoxColorado

22-year-old Human Smuggler Arrested for 15th Time 22-year-old has been deported 14 times prior to today’s arrest

EAGLE COUNTY — Two illegal immigrants were arrested for human smuggling in Eagle today. One of the men has been deported 14 times for human smuggling prior to today’s arrest. He is 22 years old.

At 8:21am a deputy pulled over a silver Chevy Venture van in the eastbound lane of I-70 for a license plate violation. The deputy discovered 13 illegal immigrants inside the vehicle.

The driver said he planned on delivering the twelve adult males in various locations that included Denver, Iowa, and Georgia.

Omar Alaverez-Mecedo, age 22, was arrested and charged with Human Smuggling, a class three felony, and operating a vehicle without a valid driver’s license, a class two misdemeanor.

In the course of the investigation it was discovered that “Omar Alaverez-Mecedo’s” real name is Israel Robles-Gaytan. According to ICE, Robles-Gaytan had already been caught and deported fourteen times; he gave law enforcement officials a different name each time.

Robles-Gaytan will be charged with Criminal Impersonation and 2nd degree Forgery in addition to the charges of Human Smuggling and operating a vehicle without a valid driver’s license.

Silvestre Bermudez, age 37, was arrested and charged with Possession of a Forged Instrument and Second Degree Forgery.

Both men were in the country illegally. Alaverez-Mecedo admitted to previously being deported three times prior.

Alaverez-Mecedo and Bermudez are currently being held at the Eagle County Detention Facility with an Immigration Customs Enforcement holds and bond amounts of $15,000 and $2,000 respectively.

The eleven other occupants of the vehicle have been placed in ICE’s custody pending deportation.

A procedure recently adopted in Eagle County allowed the Eagle County deputy to take immediate action regarding immigration enforcement.