Hillary Wins, Democrats Lose

Two days after Hillary Clinton’s big wins in Ohio and Rhode Island and her surprise win in Texas the tide has turned. First, it was an amazing victory. It was another Clinton comeback and never count the Clinton’s out. Now, Hillary’s win could mean disaster for the Democratic party.

Most pundits agree Clinton can’t overtake Obama in delegate count. But, she might be able to catch him in the popular vote. Real Clear Politics has Obama leading now when you include Florida with 13,568,983 votes to Clinton’s 13,277,974. A big win in the Pennsylvania primary on April 22nd could put Clinton in the lead. Then she can make a claim that the super delegates should support her. If she does not, Obama can lay that claim. Hence the chaos.

Bob Novak notes this in his column today:

Clinton’s transformation of the political climate by her decisive victory in Ohio and unexpected narrow win in Texas coincided with Obama facing adversity for the first time in his magical candidacy, and not handling it well. The result is not only the prospect of seven weeks of fierce campaigning by the two candidates stretching out to the next primary showdown April 22 in Pennsylvania, but also perhaps what Democratic leaders feared but never really thought possible until now: a contested national convention in Denver the last week of August.

So far, Obama has 1,573 delegates while Hillary holds on to 1,464. The Democratic winner needs 2,205 delegates to claim the nomination. Those delegates are broken up into two parts, pledge delegates and super delegates. Pledged delegates come directly from the primary and caucus process while super delegates are free to choose whichever candidate they want. Democrats have a total of 795 super delegates going to the convention in August. 242 have already chosen Hillary Clinton while 207 have selected Barack Obama. They are allowed to change their mind though, as John Lewis did.

In order to capture the 2,205 delegates needed Clinton will have to capture 94% of the 611 that are left. Obama will need to capture 77% of them. It just won’t happen. In order for Clinton to take the delegate lead she will have to win 59% of the 611 left. It’s possible, but it isn’t likely.

John Dickerson writes on Slate Hillary has the momentum, but it will still be hard for her to win the nomination:

Hillary Clinton is trying to make the story matter more than the numbers, and what she won Tuesday were some good talking points for her narrative. She’s got to make the case to the roughly 300 undecided superdelegates that they should overlook Obama’s advantage among pledged delegates. Her argument has two parts: Obama doesn’t represent the Democratic Party, and he is a flawed general election candidate.

Jonathan Alter writes in Newsweek:

Superdelegates won’t help Clinton if she cannot erase Obama’s lead among pledged delegates, which now stands at roughly 134. Caucus results from Texas aren’t complete, but Clinton will probably net about 10 delegates out of March 4. That’s 10 down, 134 to go. Good luck.

Ellen Goodman is the lone voice holding out hope. Democrats are excited about both of their candidates and it is driving voters to the polls. This will help come November.

Allow me to offer the contrarian view that “playing with our heads and hearts” has been a good thing, and that the primary campaign may strengthen, not weaken the party’s chances.

For openers, it’s the “embeds” — the traveling press who look as weary as the candidates — and the party honchos who want it over. Two-thirds of the polled Democrats think it should go on.

A good part of the energy and excitement of this campaign comes — still — from having a woman and an African-American on the ballot. So far, Clinton and Obama have brought more voters to the polls than any primary campaign in recent memory.

A full 59 percent of the Ohio voters were women this year, up seven points from 2004. In Texas they were 57 percent, up four points. Obama engages younger voters. In Ohio alone there was a 10 percent increase in the under-30 vote compared to 2000. If it’s good for Ohio, why not Pennsylvania? Indiana?

Howard Dean and the Democratic National Committee will do whatever they can to avoid a fight at their convention in August. They remember 1968. The question will become who will agree to be on the bottom half of the “dream ticket.”